Jim Welsh Says This One Yield Level Could Break the Whole Market

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides joins Ilya Spivak on a market that looks strong on top and hollow underneath. The S&P and Nasdaq are at record highs, but only because semiconductors and the Mag 7 drag them there, the equal-weight broad market is the weakest relative to the S&P in 24 years. His line in the sand: if the 10-year yield climbs toward 5.65%, echoing 1987, that could be the breaking point, because if the AI trade cracks, there's nowhere for the money to rotate. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 The break in the S&P and Nasdaq 00:50 The broad market is hostage to bonds 01:45 Equal-weight weakest in 24 years 02:30 Does tech crack or the market catch up 03:40 Why the AI trade feels defensive 04:20 Echoes of early 2000 breadth 05:00 What's really moving yields 06:40 The inflation data that got rejiggered 08:00 The December hike and next year 14:00 The 1987 parallel and 5.65% 22:40 The secular bear-market case #tastylive #tradingtrends #jimwelsh #treasuryyields #marketbreadth #semiconductors #aitrade #gold #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.