Henrik Zeberg Says the Fed Is Walking Into a Trap

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at Swissblock joins Chris Vecchio on Fed day with a blunt read: there is no case for a hike here, and tightening into a supply shock when demand has already been crushed is the error. He walks the job creation run rate against the months before the 2001 and 2007 recessions to make the point, and questions how much the latest payrolls report can carry. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 A macro guest on Fed day 01:00 Is the hike already priced in 02:05 Why he sees no case to hike 03:26 Fighting the last war 04:11 The problem with the jobs data 05:22 Comparing 2001 and 2007 06:51 Hiking into a tax on growth 08:19 What breaks first 08:59 Can a 5 percent yield kill it 10:43 The final blow off phase 11:08 Where crypto fits tonight 12:46 The four year cycle fairytale 15:04 Reading the scenario chart 16:46 Why he calls this bullish 17:26 Watching the dollar 18:27 Nobody knows tonight #tastylive #henrikzeberg #fomc #federalreserve #macro #recession #bitcoin #bonds #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.