Samantha LaDuc Says the Rate Hike Everyone Expects Is a Trap

Samantha LaDuc of LaDucTrading joins Ilya Spivak with a call that cuts against the curve. She does not expect a hike out of this meeting even with the market pricing one at better than 90 percent, and she argues that a hold is the outcome nobody is positioned for. They also work through the long end and why she credits term premium rather than oil for the move in yields since March, how inflation looks different depending on which series you trust, the breadth decay building under the surface all September, and how a de-risking move would feed systematic selling. Views are Samantha's own. Education, not a recommendation. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 The AI safety conversation 01:42 Watch what they do, not say 03:45 Policy will dictate price 05:22 Crowding out, in reverse 07:14 The long end pushed back 08:26 Three interventions, one direction 10:29 Term premium, not oil 11:01 How inflation gets measured 13:47 The setup into Wednesday 15:01 Why she expects no hike 16:38 A hold is the surprise 18:04 Breadth decay under the surface 18:38 Seasonality and suppressed vol 19:21 What a dovish miss means 20:48 De-risking feeds the selling 22:44 Why Q4 matters most #tastylive #tradingtrends #samanthaladuc #fomc #federalreserve #macro #bonds #inflation #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.