EUR/USD Is Back Where Q3 Began and Momentum Is Now Weaker

The EUR/USD outlook for Q4 turns on a major multiyear pivot, as the Federal Reserve tightens faster than the European Central Bank. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, breaks down the central bank backdrop and the chart structure shaping the euro against the U.S. dollar. Fed funds futures price roughly a 67% chance of another Federal Reserve hike in October, while the European Central Bank has hiked twice this year as Christine Lagarde weighs upside inflation risk against downside growth risk. With EUR/USD monthly RSI at its lowest since March 2025, the video covers what a monthly close through support would signal and what would invalidate the downtrend. Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_michael_boutros&utm_content=share 00:00 - Fed Hike Odds Test EUR/USD 00:31 - ECB Growth Risks Cap Hikes 01:05 - RSI Weakest Since March 2025 01:48 - A 3.4% Rally, Then a Reversal 02:38 - Weekly Close Unlocks Downside 03:04 - The Downtrend's Breaking Point Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #StoneX #MichaelBoutros #EURUSD #Forex --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social