USD/JPY Shrugs Off a Record Surge in Speculative Yen Longs

The USD/JPY outlook hinges on hawkish Fed pricing and positive carry supporting the pair while intervention risk caps its upside. David Scutt, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, explains what could shift Fed pricing, why conditions for a yen carry trade unwind are not yet in place, and why record speculative yen buying has not lifted the currency. A weaker US consumer, a slower AI capex cycle or a sustained fall in energy prices could each ease inflation pressure and reshape Fed rate pricing. Positive carry from funding in yen remains significant after years of Federal Reserve easing, while net speculative yen longs have climbed sharply without a sustained yen rally. 0:00 USD/JPY Pinned by Two Forces 0:30 Yen Carry Trade Still Pays Off 1:02 Record Yen Longs Go Nowhere 1:30 Intervention Risk Caps USD/JPY Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_david_scutt&utm_content=share Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #USDJPY #Forex #StoneX #DavidScutt