Key facts
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed deal to import Russian diesel fuel.
- Zelenskyy has approved further drone strikes on Russian refineries.
- Trump has called for Ukrainians to replace Zelenskyy as their leader.
- The Trump administration has threatened to halt a program through which allies purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces a difficult decision regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to lift sanctions on Russia to allow the import of millions of tons of diesel fuel. Zelenskyy has publicly condemned the deal as a "weak decision" and a "gift to Putin" that would fund Russia's war effort, and has continued to approve drone strikes on Russian refineries.
This defiance, however, carries significant risks. Trump has called for Zelenskyy to be replaced as Ukraine's leader. Experts like Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat, suggest that Zelenskyy may be calculating that Trump could be weakened by upcoming midterms, but risks provoking him into cutting off vital U.S. intelligence support or pressuring companies like SpaceX to disable Starlink internet service, which Ukraine's military relies on heavily. The Trump administration has also reportedly threatened to halt a program that facilitates allied purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine.
Despite these risks, Zelenskyy remains firm, stating that Ukraine will only halt strikes on Russian oil refineries if Moscow ceases its air attacks, emphasizing that "any de-escalation steps must be mutual." He has found support from domestic opposition, including former President Petro Poroshenko, who defended Zelenskyy and questioned the value of any deal that does not lead to a full and unconditional ceasefire. Opposition lawmaker Mykola Knyazhitskiy suggested that Trump's criticism inadvertently strengthens Zelenskyy's domestic standing.
Nathalie Tocci, an advisor to former EU foreign policy chiefs, believes Trump's leverage over Ukraine has diminished due to reduced U.S. support, though she acknowledges he could still inflict damage by suspending intelligence sharing. However, she doubts he would halt weapons sales entirely if money is involved. The underlying fear in Kyiv, according to lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, is that Trump's pursuit of a deal with Moscow will come at Ukraine's expense, potentially leading to its capitulation.