Key facts
- Democrats need to gain four Senate seats to secure control.
- Nine Senate races are identified as competitive and critical for determining control.
- Many competitive races are in states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024.
- Donald Trump's approval rating is at a career low of 33%.
- Specific competitive races include Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Democrats require a net gain of four seats to secure control of the 100-seat U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. While candidates will be chosen in 35 states, analysts have identified only nine races as competitive, many of which are situated in states that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election. Trump's approval rating currently stands at 33%, the lowest of his political career, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.
In Alaska, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces a challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, who led Sullivan in the state's nonpartisan primary. Another candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, shares the incumbent's name, potentially complicating the race. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system may also influence the outcome.
Georgia's Senate race features Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff against Republican Representative Mike Collins, a Trump-backed conservative. Ossoff, seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, holds an advantage according to most polls, despite Collins's controversial social media presence.
Iowa's Senate contest sees Republican Representative Ashley Hinson defending a seat against state representative Josh Turek. The race is considered close, influenced by the state's agricultural sector and Trump's tariffs.
Maine's race pits incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins against Democratic nominee Troy Jackson. Recent polls indicate Jackson holds a slight lead.
In Michigan, Democrats are defending a seat held by retiring Senator Gary Peters. Nominee Abdul El-Sayed faces challenges consolidating support due to his progressive stances, competing against Republican Mike Rogers. Analysts rate this race a toss-up.
New Hampshire's open Senate seat features Republican John Sununu against Democratic Representative Chris Pappas, with analysts favoring Pappas.
North Carolina's race for an open seat has former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leading Republican operative Michael Whatley, a Trump ally, in opinion polls.
Ohio's contest involves former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown attempting to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted. Despite Ohio trending Republican, recent polls show Brown with a narrow lead, and analysts consider the race a toss-up.
Texas presents a surprise battleground where Democratic state representative James Talarico is in a close race with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who secured his primary win with Trump's backing despite past allegations.
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