Key facts
- NRF forecasts 4.2% growth in US holiday sales for 2023.
- Projected holiday sales total $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion in 2022.
- Deloitte survey indicates average household holiday spending could increase 4% to $1,654.
US holiday sales growth is expected to accelerate to 4.2% this year, reaching $1.013 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). The forecast, released on Thursday, anticipates consumer resilience despite retailers like Walmart, Kohl's, and American Eagle flagging spending pressures due to inflation and higher household costs. The NRF's projection is based on economic modeling incorporating consumer spending, employment, wages, and historical retail sales data, excluding auto, gasoline, and restaurant sales. A separate Deloitte survey of 4,000 US consumers indicated that average household holiday spending could increase 4% to $1,654, with Gen Z and millennial shoppers driving gains. Consumers expect retail spending to rise 10% to $988, while spending on holiday activities is projected to fall 4% to $666.