Key facts
- Brent crude oil prices rose Thursday after U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned Israel against further attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- The warning by Vance raised doubts about the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement.
- Brent crude futures settled at $79.85 a barrel, up 0.38%, while WTI fell 0.25% to $76.60.
- Before Vance's comments, Brent crude touched its lowest level since March 2.
- The U.S.-Iran interim agreement includes a 60-day negotiation period and calls for the restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
- Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to normalize by end-July and crude production to recover by October.
Brent crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday after U.S. Vice President JD Vance issued a warning to Israel against further attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, introducing uncertainty about the longevity of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market's focus remains on the full resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier, oil prices had fallen significantly, with Brent crude futures touching a 3.5-month low, as markets reacted to the signing of an interim U.S.-Iran agreement to end their war. The deal, signed by President Trump and President Pezeshkian, includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Approximately 12.5 million barrels of crude had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz overnight.
Analysts expect a gradual recovery in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs forecasts Gulf exports to normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, with crude production recovering by October. BNP Paribas views $75 per barrel as a durable floor for Brent crude prices in the foreseeable future, citing ongoing supply losses and higher demand.