Key facts
- UK faces a reduced system margin with a potential shortfall of 1.88 gigawatts on Tuesday.
- An Electricity Margin Notice was issued for peak hours between 3 p.m. and 11 p.m. on Tuesday.
- Wind power generation is expected to be significantly lower than forecast and average levels.
- Intraday power prices for Tuesday evening surged to over $530 per megawatt-hour.
- Wind power supplied nearly 30% of the UK's electricity last year.
The UK's National Energy System Operator (NESO) issued a warning on Tuesday about a reduced system margin, anticipating a potential shortfall of approximately 1.88 gigawatts during peak hours later in the day. The operator issued an Electricity Margin Notice for the period between 3 p.m. and 11 p.m. on Tuesday.
NESO stated that this is a routine and precautionary measure, emphasizing that there is no risk to customer electricity supplies and that Great Britain's electricity system remains secure. The notices are used to signal to the electricity market that a larger safety cushion between power demand and supply is desired in the short term.
The warning comes as wind power generation is set to plunge on Tuesday, leaving the system reliant on gas-fired power stations. Wind generation is expected to be 40% below the most recent forecast and only about 25% of the average seen so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from market operator Elexon. Last year, wind power supplied nearly 30% of the UK's electricity.