Key facts
- A draft report by the Social Market Foundation advocating for a doubled Machine Games Duty was published with internal staff comments.
- Internal comments questioned the certainty of displaced workers finding new employment and the strength of causal links between machines and crime.
- The BGC estimates that doubling the duty could put 1,500 betting shops and 34 casinos at risk, costing up to 16,000 jobs.
- Evoke, owner of William Hill, has closed 270 shops in the past year due to higher taxation.
- Flutter plans to cut around 1,400 jobs in the UK and Ireland to offset higher gambling duties.
Questions have emerged over the evidence behind a proposed £458 million gambling tax rise, days before the UK Budget is set to be delivered on Wednesday, October 28. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) is challenging the basis of a potential increase in Machine Games Duty (MGD), citing internal comments from a draft Social Market Foundation (SMF) report. These comments reportedly raise doubts about how the impact on jobs and high streets was assessed.
The SMF's report advocates for doubling the MGD from 20% to 40%, estimating it could raise between £275 million and £458 million annually. However, leaked internal comments from SMF director Theo Bertram questioned the optimism regarding job displacement and the strength of causal links between machines and crime. Chief economist Gideon Salutin acknowledged that individual workers might not find new jobs but maintained that overall employment would grow, and softened a 'causal link' to 'correlation' regarding crime.
The BGC argues that these internal critiques undermine the justification for further tax increases. Independent modelling commissioned by the BGC from EY suggests that doubling the duty could put almost 1,500 betting shops and 34 casinos at risk, potentially costing up to 16,000 jobs. Meanwhile, operators like Evoke, owner of William Hill, have pointed to recent shop closures as evidence of the impact of higher taxation, and Flutter has announced plans to cut around 1,400 jobs in the UK and Ireland to offset higher gambling duties.