Trump's oil price strategy faces two major tests this weekend

Two decisions by Donald Trump this weekend will shape energy risk, with the US president opting to keep US firepower out of Saudi Arabia's conflict with the Houthis and facing a deadline on Russian diesel licenses. The Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt Gulf peace with recent attacks.

The Houthis hit Aramco's Dhahran headquarters on Tuesday night, an attack that spread fire across several floors of the building which houses the operations center for the company's rigs, pipelines, refineries, and export terminals. The Houthis also hit King Khalid's terminals in Riyadh last Saturday, killing 13 people, including an American. Riyadh's main airport remains shut until Saturday, and nearly half of all Saudi flights have been cancelled.

The second test for Trump's strategy is a license for Russian diesel, which faces its first test on October 18. This is the deadline in the Russia sanctions law Trump signed a month ago for duties of up to 500% on Russian petroleum products.