Key facts
- Voters are judging the economy by what they pay at the supermarket and petrol prices.
- Average hourly earnings have risen 3% over the last year, while consumer prices have increased 3.7%.
- Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs increased consumer goods prices by about 2.9%, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study.
Donald Trump is facing a familiar economic challenge where strong headline data is not translating into positive public perception, a dilemma that also confronted Joe Biden. Despite low unemployment and a near-record stock market, voters are primarily concerned with high prices for everyday goods and services. Trump's promise to lower prices has been difficult to fulfill, with inflation continuing to outpace wage growth. Some economists attribute current price levels partly to Trump's own policies, such as tariffs, and the economic impact of the US-Israel conflict with Iran.