Key facts
- A predicted Super El Niño in 2026 could cause severe droughts in Colombia, impacting hydroelectric power generation.
- Colombia's proven oil reserves decreased by nearly 1% to just over 2 billion barrels by the end of 2025.
- Proven natural gas reserves fell sharply by 17% year over year to 1.7 trillion cubic feet by the end of 2025.
- Colombia's oil production reached a multiyear low of 724,910 barrels per day in April 2026.
- Natural gas output declined 14% year over year to 694 million cubic feet daily in April 2026.
- President Gustavo Petro's energy policies have deterred investment and contributed to declining domestic production.
- Colombia's reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to increase significantly, impacting the economy and inflation.
Colombia is facing a potential energy crisis driven by a combination of dwindling domestic oil and natural gas reserves and the looming threat of a severe El Niño event. Scientists predict a 'Super El Niño' in 2026 could cause significant droughts, impacting the country's heavy reliance on hydroelectric power, which generates around 65% of its electricity.
This situation is exacerbated by declining domestic production of both oil and natural gas. Proven oil reserves have seen a slight decrease, while natural gas reserves have plummeted by 17% year over year. Production levels for both commodities have reached multiyear lows. The country's oil production fell to 724,910 barrels per day in April 2026, and natural gas output dropped to 694 million cubic feet daily in the same month.
President Gustavo Petro's administration has implemented policies, including halting new exploration contracts and increasing taxes, which have deterred investment in the sector. This, coupled with challenging regulatory environments and rising violence in oil-producing regions, has led some companies, like Exxon, to exit the country. As a result, Colombia's dependence on costly liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports is projected to surge, potentially accounting for 25% of consumption in 2026.
The increased reliance on imports is expected to drive up inflation and place structural pressure on the country's balance of payments, particularly at a time of fiscal weakness. The decline in hydrocarbon reserves and production poses a serious threat to Colombia's economy, which was once a self-sufficient natural gas producer and a major net oil exporter.