Key facts
- Standard Chartered forecasts the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2030.
- The bank's previous projection for the $2 trillion market was for 2028.
- The stablecoin market has plateaued at approximately $309 billion this year.
- USDC leads in developed-market payments and transactions between AI agents.
- Tether's USDt dominates emerging-market savings.
- US regulatory and accounting changes could shape stablecoin use.
Standard Chartered has revised its forecast for the stablecoin market, now anticipating it will reach $2 trillion in capitalization by 2030, a two-year delay from its previous projection. This adjustment comes as the bank observes that while overall market value has stalled, transaction activity for existing stablecoins is increasing, indicating more frequent circulation rather than new supply driving growth.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, identified four distinct markets for stablecoins. Tether's USDt is dominant in emerging-market savings, while Circle's USDC leads in developed-market payments and also holds strong positions in crypto trading and transactions between AI agents. Ethena's USDe is also noted for its role in crypto trading. The bank anticipates the most significant competition will occur in developed market payments, with emerging challengers like USDG, M^0, and multibank stablecoin networks seeking to disrupt existing infrastructure.
Kendrick suggested that the division of yield generated from stablecoin reserves between issuers and payment networks will be a key factor in determining market share. The evolving regulatory landscape in the United States is also poised to influence stablecoin usage. Proposed rules from US regulators, including those from the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), aim to govern issuance, reserve requirements, and consumer protections, with new licensing requirements expected in January 2027. Additionally, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has proposed changes that could simplify how businesses report stablecoins on their balance sheets, potentially making them more attractive for payments and settlement.