Key facts
- A code of conduct for the South China Sea risks becoming a toothless agreement, analysts warn.
- China and four Southeast Asian nations—Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and the Philippines—are involved in negotiations.
- The proposed pact has been gridlocked over balancing competing territorial claims.
- The Philippines aims to finalize the COC by the end of 2026.
- Key unresolved issues include whether the agreement will be legally binding, its geographic scope, and its connection to the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
- Disruptions in shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns about regional trade and energy security, adding urgency to the COC negotiations.
Analysts have warned that a long-awaited code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea risks becoming a toothless agreement as China and Southeast Asian nations attempt to finalize a deal by the end of 2026. The proposed pact has been stalled for over three decades due to competing territorial claims among China and four rival claimant states: Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and the Philippines.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro emphasized the importance of concluding the COC, drawing parallels to the disruptions seen in the Strait of Hormuz and highlighting the threat to the region's trade and energy security. This urgency is particularly felt as the Philippines assumes the ASEAN chairmanship in 2026, a role that includes facilitating the COC's completion.
ASEAN and China have been working on the COC for more than two decades, aiming to establish rules for conduct in the disputed waters. Four ASEAN member states—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—have overlapping claims with China. Lazaro has stressed that the COC must be legally binding and explicitly reference the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The conflict in the Middle East earlier in the year, which led to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in oil prices, has provided a fresh impetus for ASEAN leaders to push for greater maritime cooperation and ensure freedom of navigation. Negotiators are meeting monthly, a more frequent occurrence than in the past.
However, significant hurdles remain. Even basic definitions, such as "self-restraint," are still being contested. Lazaro indicated that core issues such as the agreement's legal bindingness, its geographic scope, its connection to the non-binding 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and the terms of reference are yet to be resolved. Despite these challenges, Lazaro expressed optimism tempered with pragmatism regarding the 2026 target.
The push for the COC occurs as ASEAN reviews its energy security measures, including calls to ratify the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, build regional fuel stockpiles, and accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid project. Analysts, however, remain skeptical about the effectiveness of these measures in significantly strengthening regional energy resilience.