Key facts
- The CFTC is investigating former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger over prediction market trades.
- Kinzinger's trades on Kalshi occurred in December 2024 and January 2025.
- The trades are linked to a pardon issued by former President Joe Biden.
- Kalshi is also reviewing the transactions.
- Kalshi has disclosed two insider trading cases it recently closed, involving a California gubernatorial candidate and a YouTube editor.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger for prediction market trades made on the Kalshi platform. The trades, reportedly linked to a pardon issued by former President Joe Biden in his final hours in office, took place in December 2024 and January 2025. Three individuals with knowledge of the probe confirmed the investigation to the news outlet.
Kalshi, a derivatives regulator that has been asserting a significant role in overseeing prediction markets, is also reviewing Kinzinger's transactions. The platform recently disclosed details of two insider trading cases it resolved, marking its first public enforcement actions. One case involved a California gubernatorial candidate who traded on his own race, resulting in a five-year ban and a penalty of ten times his trade size. Another case concerned Artem Kaptur, a YouTube editor who traded on non-public information about a streamer's content, leading to a two-year suspension and a penalty of five times his trade size.
Kalshi stated it has opened 200 investigations in the past year, with over a dozen becoming active cases, and has reported these cases to the CFTC. The exchange also announced an independent Surveillance Audit Committee to publish quarterly reports on flagged trades and investigations. Despite these actions, Kalshi has publicly confirmed that it is not currently under investigation by the CFTC regarding its trading activities, emphasizing its cooperation with regulators and commitment to compliance.