Key facts
- Reform UK's summer has been less impactful than anticipated, lacking major unrest to exploit.
- Internal divisions have emerged within the party, including public reprimands of spokespeople.
- Nigel Farage's focus on the Clacton by-election, linked to scrutiny over a £5m payment, limited his national campaigning.
- Recent polls suggest Reform UK's surge in support has stalled, with Nigel Farage potentially hindering further growth.
- The party faces competition from other right-wing groups, impacting local election results.
- Reform plans to use its upcoming conference to unveil new policies and a 100-day government plan.
Reform UK's summer has been characterized by a lack of significant public unrest to exploit, internal party divisions, and strategic missteps, leading to stalled support according to recent polls.
The party, which typically aims to dominate the news cycle during parliamentary recesses with provocative statements, has struggled to replicate the success of previous summers. Despite regular press conferences and policy rollouts, notably from Robert Jenrick on issues like slashing the benefits bill, the expected wave of public discontent has not materialized.
Internal friction has also surfaced, including public reprimands from Nigel Farage to home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf for calling former Conservative defence secretary Ben Wallace a "traitor." Further divisions were evident with the suspension of high-profile activist Tim Montgomerie.
Perhaps the most significant strategic error cited by observers was Farage's decision to trigger a by-election in Clacton. This move, reportedly influenced by pressure over an undeclared £5 million payment from megadonor Christopher Harborne, confined Farage to Essex for six weeks, limiting his ability to campaign nationally and generate broader media coverage. The anticipated "people versus the establishment" narrative did not fully materialize as other major parties largely ignored the contest.
Analysts like Giles Dilnot, editor of ConservativeHome, suggest that while Reform UK excels at tactics, its strategy has faltered, with the Clacton decision being an "angry" strategic mistake. Dilnot also noted that Reform's consistent attacks on the Conservatives have not yet yielded a decisive blow, and that Farage's centralized leadership style, while an asset, also polarizes voters and can alienate individuals.
Recent polling data indicates a plateau in Reform UK's support. A More in Common poll showed the party at 23%, four points behind Labour, marking their worst performance in 18 months. Ipsos polling also places Labour ahead for the first time since the general election. Furthermore, a significant majority of the public (65%) do not believe Farage is ready to be prime minister.
Adding to the challenges, Reform UK faces competition from the hard-right Restore Britain party, led by Rupert Lowe. This was evident in a recent Dover district council by-election, where Reform narrowly lost to the Greens after Restore Britain secured 10% of the vote.
Despite these setbacks, Reform sources maintain that the party is emerging from the summer with a robust policy platform and that their upcoming conference in Birmingham will generate further headlines and showcase an enhanced business engagement program. The conference is expected to outline the party's first 100 days in government, with attention on whether any internal dissent will emerge.