Key facts
- A Polymarket trader named 'fishalive' turned approximately $4 million into over $9 million in profit.
- The profit was realized by betting against Spain and on Cabo Verde staying within a 2.5-goal spread.
- Spain and Cabo Verde played to a 0-0 draw in their World Cup match.
- Another trader, 'betoor619,' lost nearly $1 million betting on a Spain victory.
- Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market allowing anonymous trading and settlement in USDC.
A surprising 0-0 draw between World Cup debutants Cabo Verde and favorites Spain generated significant financial outcomes on the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket. A newly created wallet, operating under the pseudonym 'fishalive,' reportedly turned approximately $4 million into a profit exceeding $9 million by placing bets against a Spanish victory and on Cabo Verde staying within a 2.5-goal spread.
This outcome contrasts sharply with another Polymarket trader, 'betoor619,' who faced a loss of nearly $1 million after wagering almost $1.1 million on a Spain win, which would have yielded only about $85,000. The winning account, 'fishalive,' had no prior significant trading history on Polymarket, raising questions about the source of its successful, high-stakes bets against a heavily favored opponent.
Polymarket allows users to trade shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied odds and settlements made in USDC, a stablecoin, on a public blockchain. This structure enables anonymous trading, a feature that has drawn criticism from lawmakers due to the lack of Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures common in regulated sportsbooks. The platform saw substantial trading volume for the Spain match, with over $64 million exchanged, and its overall tournament winner market has attracted billions, highlighting its growing prominence. This year's World Cup is the first since prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket gained significant popularity as a new method for sports betting.