Key facts
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 92% to win the House and 65.5% to win the Senate.
- A full Democratic Sweep is the most likely outcome at 65.5%.
- Trading volume on chamber-control contracts has surged in recent days.
- Utah is suing Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling and seeking to block election contracts.
- A Bloomberg survey indicated investors favor a Republican Congress for stocks but a Democratic Sweep for bonds.
- The CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill, failed a Senate cloture vote.
Prediction markets are indicating a strong Democratic advantage in the upcoming US midterm elections, with Polymarket showing a 92% chance for Democrats to win the House and 65.5% for the Senate. Trading volume on these contracts has surged, reflecting increased investor interest in the potential legislative outcomes. Kalshi's predictions closely align with Polymarket's. The CLARITY Act, a significant crypto market structure bill, previously failed a Senate vote, impacting lobbying efforts and regulatory timelines. Meanwhile, legal challenges against prediction markets like Kalshi persist, alongside efforts to expand access and legitimacy for the sector.