Key facts
- Democrats have not flipped Republican-held seats added to the "Red to Blue" list in the final two months before an election since 2018.
- Only three Democrats won such seats between 2018 and 2024, all in Democratic-held open seats.
- Historically, 73 out of 203 candidates added to the Red to Blue program in prior cycles flipped their seats.
House Democrats are increasingly targeting Republican-held seats late in the election cycle, but historical data suggests these efforts rarely succeed. A POLITICO analysis found that since 2018, no Democrat has flipped a Republican-held seat that was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list in September or October before Election Day. Of the 28 candidates added during this late period between 2018 and 2024, only three won, and all were in Democratic-held open seats. This contrasts with the program's earlier success rate, where 73 out of 203 candidates added in previous cycles successfully flipped their seats.