Key facts
- Turkey has emerged largely unscathed from the US-Iran war, securing opportunities despite initial setbacks.
- A new US-Iran mediated order has emerged, with Oman identified as a key beneficiary.
- The US-Iran war, initiated by Donald Trump, failed to achieve regime change in Iran and impacted Israel's strategic goals.
- Turkey played a role in securing a 60-day ceasefire extension and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran fired ballistic missiles into Turkey, which paradoxically strengthened Ankara's position within NATO.
- Turkey secured arms contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars with Gulf countries.
- The war has prompted Turkey to position itself as an alternative investment hub and boosted President Erdogan's popularity.
Turkey has largely emerged unscathed from the recent US-Iran conflict, leveraging the situation to enhance its geopolitical standing and economic prospects, despite initial concerns about being sidelined.
Initially, Turkish officials found their attempts to prevent the war unsuccessful, feeling that US President Donald Trump prioritized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's counsel. However, three months later, Trump acknowledged Turkey's significant role, alongside Pakistan and Qatar, in securing a memorandum of understanding with Iran that extended a fragile ceasefire for 60 days and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Turkish officials cautioned that this was merely a first step, with the upcoming negotiations on the nuclear file and other issues presenting a greater challenge.
Ankara's worst fears regarding the stability of the Iranian government did not materialize. Contingency plans were activated along the eastern border to manage a potential refugee wave. Concerns about Israeli plans to use Iranian Kurds for an insurgency, which could have destabilized Turkey's own peace talks with the PKK and created a Syria-like scenario, were addressed. Despite rhetoric from Netanyahu's cabinet suggesting "Turkey is next after Iran," Ankara successfully influenced Trump against the Kurdish insurgency, aided by divisions within Iraqi Kurdistan and doubts from CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
An unexpected development was Iran firing four ballistic missiles into Turkey, potentially targeting Incirlik Air Base and Kurecik Radar Base. While infuriating Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Iran's decision to keep the attacks sporadic and focused on installations hosting US assets helped maintain calm. Ironically, these attacks strengthened Turkey's position within NATO, as the US, Germany, and Italy deployed anti-ballistic missile systems to Turkey, improving bilateral ties.
Furthermore, Turkey has positioned itself as a significant arms supplier to Gulf countries seeking air defense systems against Iranian drone attacks, signing contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. While lacking long-range anti-ballistic interceptor capabilities, Turkey is developing this infrastructure and seeking joint investment. The war has also encouraged Ankara to position itself as an alternative investment hub, as the conflict shattered perceptions of the Gulf monarchies' invincibility. However, the conflict also exacerbated Turkey's inflation problem, with rising energy prices adding an estimated $14 billion to its energy bill.
Beyond these developments, Turkey proposed new energy and connectivity routes, such as reviving the Hejaz Railway and extending the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline. Recent polls suggest the war had a "rally-around-the-flag" effect, boosting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's popularity.