Oil prices stable amid mixed supply signals

Key facts

• Oil prices were broadly stable as the market weighed renewed US-Iran tensions against recovering Middle Eastern supplies.
• Brent crude futures fell 70 cents to $101.61 a barrel.
• West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 85 cents to $92.02 a barrel.
• US crude oil stocks rose by more than 9 million barrels last week, according to the EIA.
• US gasoline stocks fell 3.6 million barrels last week.

Oil prices were broadly stable as the market weighed renewed US-Iran tensions against recovering Middle Eastern supplies. A healthier Saudi export picture is being offset by reports of a US aircraft carrier heading toward the Gulf and China's decision to curb refined product exports.

Brent crude futures fell 70 cents to $101.61 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 85 cents to $92.02 a barrel. Traders also considered a larger-than-expected build in US crude stocks, which rose by more than 9 million barrels last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration. This build occurred despite analysts in a Reuters poll anticipating only an 863,000-barrel increase. US gasoline stocks also saw a significant decline, falling 3.6 million barrels.

OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley noted that Asian buyers were largely absent due to a long weekend across multiple regions, contributing to thin trading volumes. He also cautioned that the market's continued rally despite the inventory build and forgotten China concerns could signal a potential top in oil prices.

The International Energy Agency warned that approximately 3 million barrels per day of Russian oil could be shut-in from May onwards due to sanctions or voluntary embargoes. Major global trading houses are also reportedly planning to curtail purchases from Russian state-controlled oil companies in May. Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, suggested that even ongoing "sabre-rattling" regarding potential EU sanctions on Russian oil could maintain a risk premium in the market.