Key facts
- US natural gas production is projected to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027.
- Domestic gas consumption is also expected to increase in the coming years.
- US liquefied natural gas exports are forecast to rise significantly.
- The US is constructing more gas-fired power capacity than any other country.
- Roughly half of new US gas power capacity is linked to data center development.
- North Carolina regulators rejected Duke Energy's $500 million, 250-megawatt natural gas project.
The United States is poised for record natural gas production and consumption in 2026 and 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Dry gas production is expected to climb to 115.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2027, up from 107.6 bcfd in 2025, while domestic consumption is projected to reach 94.3 bcfd in 2027. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are also anticipated to hit new highs, reaching 18.6 bcfd in 2027.
This surge in gas ambitions is partly fueled by the rapid expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) in the U.S. The country is leading global construction of new gas-fired power capacity, with projects in development increasing by 50% since January to 378 GW, representing a third of the global total. If completed, this expansion would cost over $647 billion and significantly increase the U.S. gas fleet. Roughly half of this new capacity is directly linked to powering AI data centers, a trend that raises concerns about increased carbon emissions and volatile fuel costs.
Despite the broader push for gas infrastructure, North Carolina regulators have rejected a $500 million, 250-megawatt natural gas project proposed by Duke Energy. The North Carolina Utilities Commission cited concerns that Duke had not adequately demonstrated how consumers would be shielded from construction costs, aligning with the White House's Ratepayer Protection Pledge. This pledge, introduced under the Trump administration, aims to protect consumers from price hikes related to data center energy demands. Commissioners indicated that any future applications would need to include cost recovery mechanisms compliant with the voluntary agreement.
The rejection comes amid growing criticism of the environmental impact of data centers and rising consumer energy costs. A Bank of America report noted that U.S. utility bills have increased at a faster rate than inflation. While the Trump administration has supported data center development, the North Carolina decision suggests some authorities are responding to consumer pressure for stricter regulation and cost guarantees.