Key facts
- Non-QM originations are projected to reach $175 billion in 2026.
- Securitization issuance is forecast to reach about $100 billion.
- Non-QM RMBS issuance hit a record $20.9 billion in Q3 2025.
- Bank statement loans account for 30% to 40% of non-QM originations.
- Institutional investors are prioritizing data quality alongside credit in non-QM investments.
The non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) sector is evolving from a niche market into a closely watched segment of residential lending, with significant growth projected. Projections from Bank of America Securities indicate non-QM originations could reach $175 billion in 2026, a substantial increase from $108 billion in 2025, with securitization issuance forecast to hit approximately $100 billion. This growth is supported by record non-QM RMBS issuance, which reached $20.9 billion in the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the entire previous year's total.
The market's expansion is characterized by disciplined underwriting and a focus on data integrity, rather than a loosening of standards. While documentation may be more flexible, underwriting remains robust, catering to borrowers whose income is not reflected on a W-2. Bank statement loans, a core non-QM product, now constitute 30% to 40% of originations, with borrowers typically having strong FICO scores and conservative loan-to-value ratios.
Institutional investors are driving this evolution, demanding greater transparency and data quality. The market now features stronger credit enhancement, risk retention by issuers, and enhanced transparency from ratings agencies. This shift means data integrity is a critical factor in investment decisions, with lenders increasingly using AI to ensure accuracy and auditable records from origination through to securitization.