Key facts
- Logan Mohtashami's housing market framework prioritizes the 10-year yield and mortgage spreads over the Fed funds rate.
- Mohtashami analyzes purchase applications, pending sales, inventory, and price cuts to assess pricing power.
- He argues the current housing market is structurally healthier than the 2000s bubble due to 2005 bankruptcy reform and post-2010 QM rules.
- Key indicators Mohtashami is watching include the Fed's hawk-dove split, labor resilience, and oil risk from the Strait of Hormuz.
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, has developed a framework for understanding the housing market, which he contrasts with what he terms 'doom porn' often found online. In a podcast episode, Mohtashami detailed his approach, highlighting that the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage spreads are more critical indicators than the Federal Reserve's funds rate. He also outlined the labor data he closely monitors and how he interprets metrics such as purchase applications, pending sales, inventory levels, and price cuts to gauge pricing power in the market.
Mohtashami asserted that the current housing market possesses a more robust structure compared to the bubble of the 2000s. He attributed this improved health partly to the 2005 bankruptcy reform and the Qualified Mortgage (QM) rules implemented after 2010. Looking ahead for the remainder of the year, Mohtashami stated he is closely observing the Federal Reserve's internal policy leanings (hawk-dove split), the resilience of the labor market, and potential oil supply risks originating from the Strait of Hormuz.