Key facts
- NEXTPredict founder Pierre Lindh believes prediction markets have a large audience that is not adequately served by current media.
- The NEXTPredict conference aims to bring the prediction market category to broader audiences.
- Polymarket had approximately 283,300 monthly active users in August, down from a spring peak of over 750,000.
- Kalshi reported acquiring 3 million new users during the 2026 World Cup, with over $1.2 billion traded on the tournament winner contract.
- A working paper on $13.76 billion of Polymarket trades found that 3% of accounts took roughly 27% of dollar profits.
NEXTPredict founder Pierre Lindh believes that the prediction market sector is underserved by current media, despite having an audience that dwarfs the actual trading base. Lindh, co-founder and managing director of NEXT.io, stated that "nobody was serving it with real journalistic standards."
The NEXTPredict conference, scheduled for October 22-23 at Convene, Hudson Yards in New York, aims to address this by bringing together industry professionals, regulators, and journalists. The program includes CNBC correspondent Contessa Brewer and CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen, alongside executives from various prediction market platforms and financial institutions.
While prediction markets have gained mainstream media attention, with odds frequently quoted on cable news and in financial reports, the actual user base remains smaller. Polymarket reported around 283,300 monthly active users in August, a decrease from its spring peak. Kalshi saw a significant surge in users during the 2026 World Cup, trading over $1.2 billion on the tournament winner contract, though daily volumes fluctuate with major events.
Langston Co. surveys suggest that new money entering the prediction market space often comes from crypto traders rather than entirely new speculators, with an appeal focused on short-term gains. Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover noted that as data from these markets becomes more referenced, trading activity may increase, especially if the data proves its worth, as suggested by Federal Reserve research on Kalshi's macroeconomic contracts.
However, winning in these markets is becoming more challenging. A study of $13.76 billion in Polymarket trades indicated that a small percentage of accounts captured a disproportionate share of profits, a trend expected to diminish as institutional competition grows.