Key facts
- New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is using culture-war rhetoric ahead of the November 7 general election.
- Analysts suggest Peters' strategy, while resonating with populist parties globally, has limited appeal in New Zealand.
- New Zealand First has proposed immigration curbs and a bill to define "woman" and "man" in law.
- Recent polls show New Zealand First support around 10%, down from a high of 13.6% in April.
- New Zealand's proportional representation system may insulate it from some global culture-war trends.
Veteran politician Winston Peters is employing a culture-war strategy for his New Zealand First party ahead of the country's November 7 general election, focusing on issues such as "woke" politics, immigration, national identity, gender, and abortion. Peters, whose party has a history of playing a pivotal role in coalition-building, is betting that this message will resonate with voters facing cost-of-living pressures and debates over national identity.
However, political analysts suggest that while similar rhetoric has fueled populist movements in countries like Britain, Australia, and the United States, its appeal in New Zealand may be limited. Factors such as a more secular and less polarized electorate, and New Zealand's proportional representation voting system, are seen as potential dampeners on the effectiveness of this strategy.
New Zealand First, founded in 1993, has historically combined social conservatism with an interventionist economic program. Peters has ruled out a coalition with the center-left Labour Party, making his party a potential kingmaker for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National Party, which needs New Zealand First and the ACT party to form a government. A new challenger, the centrist Opportunity party, could also influence the balance of power.
Despite a strong pitch described as the most explicitly right-wing in the party's history, recent polling indicates that New Zealand First's momentum has faded, with support hovering around 10%, down from a high of 13.6% in April. Analysts like Josh Van Veen point to surveys showing New Zealanders are generally more open to immigration and supportive of transgender rights protections than electorates in other Western nations. Political science lecturer Luke Oldfield also noted that New Zealand's secular nature might insulate it from some reactionary political trends. Political commentator Ben Thomas suggested that the country's electoral system acts as a "release valve" for such views, preventing them from infiltrating major parties as significantly as in the U.S.