Key facts
- SpaceX will retire its Crew Dragon spacecraft after 2030, ending human transport to low-Earth orbit.
- NASA has invested $3.1 billion in SpaceX's Crew Dragon and $5.1 billion in Boeing's Starliner.
- Boeing's Starliner has yet to complete an operational mission to the International Space Station.
- SpaceX now derives most revenue from Starlink and plans to focus on Starship for its own payloads.
- NASA will invest an additional $359 million in Boeing to fix Starliner's propulsion system.
SpaceX has signaled a significant shift in its low-Earth orbit strategy, informing NASA that it intends to retire its Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket for human transport missions after 2030. This decision comes as NASA aims to foster a robust commercial space economy and focus more on lunar exploration.
For two decades, NASA has sought to stimulate private sector development of space transportation systems, expanding to create a broader commercial ecosystem in orbit. However, SpaceX's decision to exit the human low-Earth orbit transport business, despite agreeing to support the International Space Station until 2030, raises questions about the future viability of human presence in LEO, particularly for private space station operators like Axiom Space, Voyager Space, and Vast Space, who can no longer order Crew Dragon missions.
NASA's investment in Crew Dragon, totaling $3.1 billion, has been largely fulfilled, with SpaceX having flown 13 missions and agreeing to continue through Crew-17. However, SpaceX's business priorities have evolved, with Starlink now generating the majority of its revenue and future growth expected from Starlink and orbital data centers. The company views 'space enabled solutions,' including NASA's needs, as a small fraction of its total addressable market. SpaceX's focus is shifting to its Starship rocket for its own payloads, and it is not currently interested in developing Starship for human launches into Earth orbit.
NASA's other commercial crew partner, Boeing, has received $5.1 billion in investment for its Starliner spacecraft but has yet to complete an operational mission. NASA plans to invest an additional $359 million to help Boeing fix Starliner's propulsion system and certify the Vulcan rocket, hoping Starliner can supplement missions and be available for private space station operators. Critics argue this approach may lead to a monopoly for Boeing in Western human spaceflight to LEO, potentially hindering the development of a human-inhabited LEO economy. However, others believe NASA had limited options, and abandoning the Starliner investment would have been fiscally irresponsible.
Alternative proposals, such as a 'Commercial Crew 2.0' competition, were considered but would have cost NASA billions. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman believes Boeing can meet the agency's needs for approximately two seats every six to nine months. The viability of Starliner beyond NASA's requirements, at its current price point of $78.8 million per seat, remains uncertain.