Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil's upcoming election.
- A Datafolha poll shows Lula with 47% and Bolsonaro with 43% in a simulated second-round runoff.
- A Quaest poll indicates Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 40% in a simulated runoff, a statistical tie.
- The gap between the candidates has narrowed in recent polls.
- Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is maintaining a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the upcoming October election, though recent polls indicate a narrowing gap. A Datafolha poll released on Friday shows Lula with 47% of the vote in a simulated second-round runoff compared to Bolsonaro's 43%, a slight decrease from July's figures. The poll surveyed 2,058 people starting August 18.
Similarly, a Quaest survey published on Friday found Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, a margin within the poll's two-point error, indicating a statistical tie. This represents a narrowing from an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, which had Lula ahead by a wider five-point margin. In a first-round scenario, Datafolha shows Lula with 39% and Bolsonaro with 33%, while Quaest reports Lula at 38% and Bolsonaro at 31%.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is representing the right-wing in the election after his father was deemed ineligible to run. If no candidate secures over 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders proceed to a runoff, a scenario that has occurred in every presidential election since 2002.