Key facts
- Kpler estimates Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged 16.5 million bpd in September.
- Kpler suspects Gulf producers are paying Iran tolls for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, believes these payments are unsustainable.
- Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, noted that "everything appears to be happening under the radar in the Middle East."
- The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank for its role in transferring payments to the Iranian regime.
- Iran signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 but never ratified it.
Kpler estimates that Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged approximately 16.5 million barrels per day in September, with several days in the final week exceeding the pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day. Despite this recovery, oil prices have remained elevated, with Brent crude trading around $100 per barrel, nearly $30 above its pre-war level.
Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, suggested that certain Gulf nations may have struck undisclosed deals with Iran to ensure the safe passage of their oil through the Strait of Hormuz. She suspects these countries are paying a "toll" to Iran, possibly as much as 10% to 20% of their cargo, due to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. military escorts and the potential for conflict escalation.
Brohard characterized the current situation as a "race to get out as much as possible, as quickly as possible before the war restarts." These claims remain unverified, though other analysts have also raised the possibility of covert payments. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera that "everything appears to be happening under the radar in the Middle East."
If confirmed, these secret payments could have significant implications. The Trump administration has previously warned Iran against imposing tolls, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have opposed such demands. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank, alleging it was used by the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority to transfer payments received to the Iranian regime. OFAC stated that BitBank is controlled by Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, whose network allegedly used the exchange to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Zanjani, who was sentenced to death in Iran in 2016 for embezzling state oil funds, had his sentence commuted in 2024 and has since re-emerged as a backer of regime-linked economic projects.
Iran's proposed tolls would also face legal challenges under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which generally grants ships a right of transit passage through international straits. While Iran signed UNCLOS in 1982, it has not ratified it and asserts that passage through its territorial waters is also governed by its own maritime laws. Tehran has considered legislation to formalize charges for guaranteed safe passage through Hormuz.