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Japan July core CPI rises 1.8% yr/yr

Created at 20 Aug · 11:38 PM2 sources↑ Market-relevant2 events
IN SHORT

Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated to 1.8% in July year-on-year, matching economists' forecasts. This figure, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as it considers future rate hikes.

Key Numbers

1.8%Japan July core CPI annual gain
1.9%Japan July core CPI excluding food and energy
1%Current Bank of Japan policy rate
1.25%Expected Bank of Japan policy rate

Who's Involved

Bank of Japan
Central bank scrutinizing inflation data for policy decisions
Leika Kihara
Reuters reporter
Japan July core CPI rises 1.8% yr/yr

↳ Why This Matters

The acceleration in Japan's core inflation bolsters the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its monetary policy tightening, potentially impacting global currency markets and investment flows.

Key facts

  • Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% year-on-year in July.
  • The figure matched economists' median forecast.
  • Inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose 1.9% year-on-year.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates at its September policy meeting.

Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated in July, rising 1.8% year-on-year and matching economists' median forecast. This figure, which excludes volatile fresh food prices but includes energy-related items, remained below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the seventh consecutive month, partly due to government subsidies on fuel costs. An index stripping out both fresh food and fuel, closely monitored by the BOJ as a gauge of underlying inflation, increased by 1.9% year-on-year in July, up from 1.7% in June. Analysts anticipate core inflation will surpass the BOJ's target in the coming months as rising raw material costs broaden. The Bank of Japan, which raised its policy rate to 1% in June, is widely expected to increase it further to 1.25% at its September 17-18 policy meeting.

Frequently asked questions

Japan's core CPI includes energy-related items but excludes volatile fresh food prices.

The median forecast from economists for Japan's July core CPI annual gain was 1.8%.

The Bank of Japan's inflation target is 2%.

The current Bank of Japan policy rate is 1%.

What Happens Next

01Bank of Japan policy meeting on September 17-18.
CME Headlines
  • Euro futures test May highs ahead of Jackson Hole symposium.
    20 Aug · 9:36 PM
  • Euro futures test May highs ahead of Jackson Hole symposium.
    20 Aug · 9:36 PM
  • Treasury futures await Jackson Hole as 10-Year yields rebound.
    20 Aug · 9:35 PM

How It Developed

Japan's core consumer prices rose 1.8% in July year-on-year.
The core CPI figure matched economists' median estimate.
Core inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose 1.9% in July.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25% from 1% at its September meeting.

Sources

T1
Japan July core CPI rises 1.8% yr/yrReuters
T2
Indicators for Core CPI : 日本銀行 Bank of Japanboj.or.jp

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