Key facts
- Iran is seen as posing a threat to UK targets, including military bases.
- The IRGC has sought to coordinate and promote targeting of the Jewish community in the UK and Europe.
- Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford on September 27 and released on bail.
- Two Iranian nationals were charged with terror offenses for allegedly planning to use a homemade bomb against the Jewish community in Manchester.
- Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi was indicted by the US for coordinating arson and terror attacks against Jewish and US sites in the UK and Europe.
- US B-1 bombers were withdrawn from RAF Fairford as a precautionary measure.
Western officials are assessing the threat posed by Iran to the UK, particularly in the wake of an incident near RAF Fairford and following a period of heightened tensions involving Iran and the US. While the exact events at RAF Fairford remain unclear, the US decided to withdraw B-1 bombers stationed there due to fears of a drone attack, a move described as an operational decision to reduce risk.
Intelligence agencies, including MI5, acknowledge that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been actively coordinating efforts to target Jewish communities in the UK and Europe, initiating a campaign of arson attacks on synagogues and similar sites starting in March. This represents an escalation from previous assassination plots and threats against regime critics abroad, which the IRGC typically outsourced to criminal gangs.
Experts like Dr. Antonio Giustozzi express skepticism about Iran's capacity to execute sophisticated military-grade attacks on secure facilities like RAF Fairford, citing the training required for drone operations and the difficulty of recruiting for high-risk, one-way missions. However, the US withdrawal of its costly B-1 bombers underscores a precautionary approach.
Recent events have highlighted ongoing concerns. Two Iranian nationals were charged with terror offenses in the UK for allegedly attempting to create a homemade chlorine powder bomb to target the Jewish community in Manchester, with prosecutors stating they were in contact with a party in Iran for instructions. Separately, the US indicted Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, an Iranian-Iraqi dual national linked to Kata’ib Hezbollah, for coordinating arson and low-level terror attacks against Jewish and US sites in the UK and Europe. Al-Saadi pleaded not guilty, claiming to be a prisoner of war.
Jonathan Hackett, a former US marine and intelligence specialist, believes the threat from Tehran will persist in the UK and Europe, driven by a strategic aim to create divisions between the US and its allies.