Key facts
- Iran and the US have entered a limited but dangerous phase of confrontation.
- US forces struck Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in southern Iran.
- Iran responded by attacking US bases in the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
- The Iranian rial has depreciated to 2.2 million per dollar, down from 1.8 million.
- Some Iranian conservatives advocate for a disproportionate response to US attacks.
- A reformist analyst suggests Iran should use the conflict as an opportunity for negotiations.
Iran and the United States are engaged in a dangerous, limited confrontation, forcing Tehran to consider escalation versus a negotiated settlement. The latest escalation began with a US strike on Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces, followed by Iranian attacks on US bases in the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This military pressure is compounded by a de facto US siege of Iran's ports, which has led to a sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial to 2.2 million per dollar from 1.8 million.
Despite the economic strain, Iran has so far avoided widespread shortages of essential goods, though gasoline supply is becoming a concern due to rising consumption and less reliable external sources, exacerbated by damage to Russian refineries. This situation has intensified an internal debate within Iran. Some conservatives argue for a disproportionate response to US attacks, suggesting actions against US allies' oil and water infrastructure to break the siege. An international relations professor close to the conservative camp advocates for an 'offensive preemptive doctrine' and even considering a nuclear test as a deterrent.
Conversely, reformists and government-aligned figures argue that the conflict should be an opportunity for renewed negotiations. A reformist analyst noted the cycle of mutual attrition and the risk of miscalculation in the Strait of Hormuz, which could push energy prices higher and worsen Iran's economic damage. The analyst warned that a single incident in the Gulf could escalate beyond diplomatic control, with neither side appearing capable of a decisive victory. The US objective, according to a conservative source, is to maintain the initiative, keep Iran in strategic uncertainty, and prevent it from rebuilding its military capabilities.