Key facts
- The Iran war has exposed vulnerabilities in global energy trade, prompting diversification into clean energy.
- Restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas, have driven this shift.
- Investment in renewable energy has doubled that of fossil fuels over the last decade.
- Over 30 governments have enacted policies to transition away from fossil fuels or improve energy efficiency.
- The IEA estimates peak oil consumption may occur this year, earlier than previously forecast.
The ongoing conflict in Iran has inadvertently spurred a global shift towards clean energy by exposing the vulnerabilities of the international fossil fuel trade. Restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas, have compelled nations to seek alternative energy sources and accelerate the adoption of renewables.
This disruption has led to a scramble for alternative supplies and a reduction in oil and gas consumption, with some countries temporarily increasing their reliance on coal. The International Energy Agency (IEA) now forecasts that peak oil consumption might occur this year, sooner than the previously predicted 2029.
California Governor Gavin Newsom remarked that President Trump's policies, despite aiming to boost fossil fuels, have indirectly benefited the environmental movement by highlighting the world's dependence on "petro-dictatorships" and Middle East energy disruptions. He stated that the war has "completely gutted any sort of romantic notions of energy security" and is accelerating investments in clean energy.
While President Trump's domestic policies, including reduced renewable energy funding and relaxed environmental regulations, are expected to increase U.S. carbon emissions, the international impact has been different. Several governments are being encouraged to diversify their energy mix by investing in clean energy and battery storage, thereby driving down emissions. The urgency to diversify is amplified by the fact that if the restricted oil and gas exports were readily available elsewhere, governments might be less inclined to change their energy strategies. The rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity seen post-Covid-19 demonstrates that swift progress is achievable with adequate funding and policy support.
Investment in renewable energy has seen a significant rise over the past decade, now approximately double that of fossil fuels. Clean energy sources are contributing almost all new power being added to the grid, and electric vehicles are projected to account for about one in four cars sold in 2025. The reliance on fossil fuels extends beyond energy to materials like fertilizers and petrochemical products, as highlighted by Delphine Lévi Alvarès of the Centre for International Environmental Law, who stressed the need to move away from fossil fuels for "absolutely everything around us."
According to an IEA tracker, over 30 governments have implemented policies to transition away from fossil fuels or enhance energy efficiency in response to the Middle East conflict. However, climate experts believe more substantial efforts are required to significantly impact global climate goals, especially after the UN acknowledged that current efforts will miss the Paris Agreement targets. Pauline Heinrichs, a lecturer at King's College London, observed a contradiction where governments acknowledge clean power's importance while continuing to support fossil fuel expansion. Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson emphasized that long-term, decades-long action is necessary to address the climate crisis.