Key facts
- IMF raised South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%.
- IMF projects 2.8% growth for South Korea in 2027.
- Strong semiconductor exports are driving the upward revision.
- IMF global growth forecast for 2026 is 3.1%.
- South Korea's September exports rose 83.5% year-on-year to $120.9 billion.
- September semiconductor exports exceeded $60 billion for the first time.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for South Korea upward to 3.3% for 2026, a significant increase of 0.7 percentage points from its previous projection in July. This optimistic outlook is largely attributed to the country's robust semiconductor exports, which are helping to offset global economic challenges such as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and trade fragmentation.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook report, released on Tuesday, also projected South Korea's economy to grow by 2.8% in 2027, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from its earlier forecast. The organization highlighted South Korea and Taiwan as crucial players in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware industry, suggesting their economic performance could have ripple effects on raw material suppliers and manufacturing centers globally.
Globally, the IMF acknowledged that downside risks, including geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures, remain but have somewhat eased. However, potential upward momentum could come from a sustained AI technology upcycle and the restructuring of energy supply chains. The IMF's 2026 global growth forecast stands at 3.1%, with advanced economies expected to grow by 2.1%.
South Korea's Ministry of Finance and Economy welcomed the revised forecast, emphasizing the strength of AI hardware and chip exports. The ministry also acknowledged persistent uncertainties, such as the prolonged Middle East conflict and the impact of high consumer prices on households, and pledged to address economic disparities. Other institutions have also recently upgraded their forecasts for South Korea; the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projected 3.3% growth for the year, and the OECD raised its 2026 forecast to 3.7%. In September, South Korea's exports surged by 83.5% year-on-year to a record $120.9 billion, primarily driven by a substantial increase in chip shipments, with semiconductor exports surpassing $60 billion for the first time.