Key facts
- Iceland is holding a referendum on whether to restart talks about joining the European Union.
- The vote is expected to be very close, with recent polls showing the No campaign slightly ahead.
- Iceland is already part of the EU's single market and Schengen zone through the European Economic Area.
- Key concerns for No campaigners include maintaining control over the fishing industry and national sovereignty.
- A Yes vote would advance an accession agreement, subject to further referendums, parliamentary approval, and EU member state consent.
- Security concerns, including Russia's actions and US foreign policy, have also influenced the debate.
Icelanders are casting votes in a referendum to determine whether to resume discussions about joining the European Union, a process that was halted 13 years ago. The outcome is highly uncertain, with the latest opinion polls showing a very tight race, and the No campaign holding a slight lead.
Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's government had planned a referendum, but global events prompted its acceleration. The debate has largely centered on Iceland's vital fishing industry and national sovereignty, rather than security concerns, despite Iceland being a NATO member. Voting is scheduled to conclude on Saturday, with results expected early Sunday.
Iceland, with a population under 400,000, is already integrated into the EU's single market and Schengen Area via the European Economic Area. EU membership would involve joining the customs union and potentially adopting the euro. Iceland's previous application was advanced before talks were paused in 2013; European Commission officials suggest a deal could be finalized within one to two years, with 27 of 35 accession chapters initiated and 11 provisionally completed.
A 'Yes' vote would not be a definitive decision to join but would support pursuing an accession agreement, which would require subsequent approval through another referendum, parliamentary vote, constitutional amendment, and sign-off from all 27 EU member states. The 'Yes to See' campaign advocates for exploring potential terms before making a final decision. Conversely, a 'No' vote would not preclude Iceland from resuming talks in the future.
Sovereignty is a critical issue, with Iceland having fought for independence from Denmark in 1944. Its fishing and marine sectors constitute nearly 40% of its exports. No campaigners fear losing control over fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, though Brussels has suggested exemptions might be possible. The 'Cod Wars' with the UK in the 1970s highlight the historical significance of fisheries in Iceland's EU relations. Following the 2008 financial crisis, Iceland initiated accession talks in 2009 but halted them in 2013. Despite having one of the highest GDP per capita globally, Iceland faces high interest rates and inflation, with 'Yes' campaigners arguing EU membership could alleviate these economic pressures.
Security considerations are also present. Iceland, a NATO founder, lacks its own military and relies on allies, including a defense agreement with the U.S. since 1951. Concerns have been raised about potential U.S. foreign policy shifts and Russia's increased maritime activity near Iceland. A recent security and defense partnership was signed between the EU and Iceland.
The 'Yes' campaign, led by Prime Minister Frostadóttir, argues that EU membership would reduce risks and that Iceland is already well-integrated. The 'No' campaign, headed by Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, emphasizes the potential loss of decision-making power over key sectors like fisheries and natural resources to Brussels, while affirming the desire to maintain strong ties with Europe.