Key facts
- Iran plans to announce a new 'exclusion zone' for suspicious vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Commodity ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest point since May.
- The U.S. military is escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Shipping data for the Strait of Hormuz is difficult to interpret due to varying tracking methods and 'dark mode' operations.
- Goldman Sachs raised oil price forecasts due to expected persistent shipping disruptions.
Iran plans to announce a new 'exclusion zone' for vessels it deems suspicious in waters near the Strait of Hormuz as risks in the critical shipping lane intensify. This move comes as commodity ship traffic in the Strait has fallen to an average of 10 vessels daily over the past 10 days, the lowest since May.
Despite the heightened risks, ADNOC continues to load LNG, employing tactics such as using dark mode tankers and ship-to-ship transfers. The U.S. military is actively involved in escorting commercial vessels through the Persian Gulf. President Trump stated that the U.S. has effectively reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with 18 million barrels of oil reportedly crossing under American protection on Tuesday, close to the roughly 20 million barrels per day that moved through before the conflict.
However, verifying Tuesday's number is difficult, as shipping data has become unusually hard to read. Kpler recorded 11 visible commodity-vessel crossings on Tuesday, while Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded approximately 12 transits daily from August 26 through September 1. U.S. military data presents a different picture, with JMIC reporting 44 U.S.-facilitated vessels crossing on September 1 and 2, or 22 per day, while independent tracking showed only single-digit numbers moving in each direction. These discrepancies arise because different entities count different categories of vessels, including smaller and non-cargo ships that commercial trackers may filter out.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed at the start of this week, with seven commodity vessels sailing through on Monday compared to eight the previous day. Iran had warned that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including U.S. oil and gas interests, was vulnerable. Goldman Sachs also raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027, as it expects shipping disruptions in the Middle East to persist into next year. Traffic increased through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, however, with 29 commodity vessels passing on Monday, up from 17 the previous day. Some vessels may be sailing through the two straits with their transponders off, which is not considered in the counts.