Key facts
- OPEC oil production increased by 3.3 million barrels per day in June.
- Despite the rebound, OPEC production remains below pre-war levels and quotas.
- Tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to affect tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- US crude production has reached a record high.
- Goldman Sachs has warned that renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf could threaten oil supply disruptions.
OPEC's oil production saw a significant rebound in June, with members increasing output by 3.3 million barrels per day to 19.43 million bpd. This surge was largely driven by Kuwait and Iran, with Tehran restoring production following the lifting of a US naval blockade. Saudi Arabia and Iraq also contributed to the increase.
Despite the headline jump, OPEC's current production levels remain well below pre-war figures and the cartel's collective quotas. Much of the recovery reflects producers restarting previously shut-in volumes rather than adding new supply. Tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz is still below pre-war levels of 80%, currently standing at 70%, as insurers and shipowners remain cautious due to repeated attacks on commercial vessels.
This situation contrasts with previous expectations of an impending oil glut. Goldman Sachs has shifted its outlook, warning that renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf could threaten supply disruptions. Meanwhile, record crude production from the United States and strong export volumes from the UAE are fueling renewed talk of oversupply, putting pressure on crude prices.