Key facts
- Mainstream parties' strategy to isolate the far-right AfD is showing signs of strain.
- In Saxony-Anhalt, four lawmakers from mainstream parties may have voted against party orders in a secret ballot for regional assembly speaker.
- The AfD's candidate, Tobias Rausch, won 48 votes, four more than the combined total of the AfD and the BSW.
- The AfD aims to win a national election in 2029 and has been leading the CDU in nationwide polls for over a year.
- Parts of the AfD, including its Saxony-Anhalt branch, have been designated as extremist by German security services.
- The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) compiled a report finding the AfD incites resentment of migrants, racism, and Islamophobia.
Germany's established political parties are facing increasing pressure as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party continues to gain traction, challenging the long-standing strategy of isolating it. In the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, at least four lawmakers from mainstream parties appear to have defied party orders in a secret ballot, voting to give the AfD its first regional assembly speaker.
Suspicion immediately fell on the 15 members of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament, who had been instructed to abstain. Karin Prien, deputy chair of the national CDU, stated that if CDU lawmakers were responsible, "there must be consequences." The AfD, which has been leading the CDU in nationwide surveys for over a year and aims to win the national election in 2029, hailed the vote as a "political turning point."
The AfD's growing influence has alarmed rivals, who view it as an anti-democratic party. The party rejects the label of "extreme right." Its recent electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt, where it fell just short of an absolute majority, has fueled concerns that it could win a national election in 2029. The coalition government in Berlin, led by Merz's CDU and the center-left Social Democrats, has faced strain due to disagreements and declining poll numbers, with voters citing declining living standards.
Established over a decade ago during the euro zone debt crisis, the AfD has evolved from a fringe movement to become Germany's most popular party in opinion polls. However, parts of the AfD, including its Saxony-Anhalt branch, have been designated as extremist by German security services, who cite concerns about its stance on migrants, racism, and Islamophobia. The AfD maintains it is restoring German national pride and ensuring citizens are not disadvantaged by migrant prioritization.
Despite the "firewall" approach of refusing cooperation, the AfD has not yet joined any coalition government. In Saxony-Anhalt, it still requires three more seats for a majority, and talks with the populist far-left BSW party have yielded no progress. AfD official Ulrich Siegmund expressed confidence in persuading enough members of other parties to defy orders to secure confirmation as state premier by year-end.
Merz has ruled out any arrangement with the AfD, viewing it as a threat to the CDU. The issue is expected to be a key discussion point at an upcoming CDU leadership meeting. The question of whether it remains feasible to refuse cooperation with a party attracting nearly a third of the vote, particularly in eastern Germany, has become urgent. CDU deputy leader Prien warned that any accommodation could jeopardize the party's existence.
While the AfD is stronger in eastern Germany, its rise is linked to broader challenges facing the country, including the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy supplies and competition from China affecting its industrial base. Economists also point to the need for fundamental reforms in pensions and taxes, and persistent divisions between eastern and western regions. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier acknowledged feelings of insecurity and being overlooked by the political system, warning that the current political climate could threaten Germany's democracy.