Key facts
- The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to win the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6.
- If the AfD wins a majority, its leader Ulrich Siegmund would likely become premier, marking the first time the party holds a state government position.
- The AfD's potential victory challenges Germany's post-war political order and raises concerns about closer ties with Russia.
- Establishment parties are considering strategies to contain the AfD's influence, including informal meetings and restricting access to sensitive intelligence.
- One proposed measure is to create 'Chinese walls' within information systems to prevent the AfD from accessing intelligence on right-wing extremism and espionage.
Germany's political establishment is grappling with how to manage the potential rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is expected to secure a significant victory in the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6. If the AfD wins an outright majority, its leader Ulrich Siegmund would likely become premier, breaking a long-standing political 'firewall' that has kept the party out of federal and state governments since its founding in 2013.
This potential AfD premiership presents an unprecedented challenge for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the broader German political system, as the party is seen by many as a threat to the country's liberal postwar order. The AfD's platform, which includes advocating for closer ties with Russia, has raised particular concerns among security officials.
Officials from the federal government and various state governments are reportedly reluctant to discuss concrete strategies for dealing with an AfD-led state government, with many refusing to comment on the record. However, discussions have centered on potential measures to contain the party's influence and mitigate security risks.
One proposed strategy involves holding additional informal meetings among state premiers and ministers, excluding the AfD representative from sensitive discussions. This approach draws on existing informal groupings within German politics, where governments are often divided into 'A' and 'B' states based on their political majority. The idea is to create a bloc of 'non-AfD' states to coordinate policy and information sharing.
Another option being considered is to erect 'Chinese walls' within joint information systems to block the AfD from accessing highly classified intelligence, particularly concerning right-wing extremism and espionage. Thuringia's Interior Minister Georg Maier suggested this 'preventive segmentation' would be legally feasible and could be implemented relatively quickly after a government is formed.
However, AfD representatives have rejected accusations of closeness to Moscow, with a spokesperson for the party's Saxony-Anhalt branch calling such claims 'complete nonsense' and asserting their understanding of governmental responsibility. The experience of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in government has also been cited as a cautionary tale.