Key facts
- Uruguay, Namibia, the Netherlands, and Denmark are leading in renewable energy capacity growth towards the 1.5°C climate target.
- No country has yet achieved the required five-year growth rate for solar and wind power to meet 1.5°C warming limits.
- Solar and wind currently represent 17.4% of global electricity generation, short of the 57-78% needed by 2030.
- These four nations achieved approximately 75% of the annual growth rate required between 2025 and 2030.
- Major emitters like China (29% of global emissions) and the US (11%) lag in renewable integration relative to their size.
Uruguay, Namibia, the Netherlands, and Denmark are the only countries making significant progress towards the annual growth rates in renewable power capacity required by 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, according to a report by Systems Change Lab, an initiative led by the World Resources Institute (WRI).
No country has yet achieved the necessary five-year growth rate for solar and wind power to meet targets compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement aims to keep the temperature rise "well below" 2°C and pursue a 1.5°C limit. Currently, solar and wind constitute 17.4% of global electricity generation, falling short of the 57-78% needed by 2030. However, the four leading nations have achieved approximately 75% of the annual growth rate required for the 2025-2030 period.
Specific examples of progress include Uruguay's wind power increasing to 32% of its energy mix from 1% between 2013 and 2018, and Namibia's solar power growing to 39% from 6% between 2017 and 2022. The Netherlands saw solar and wind power rise to 45% of its electricity generation from 14% between 2019 and 2024, while Denmark leads globally with around 60% of its electricity from wind.
These four nations contribute minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, with Uruguay, Namibia, the Netherlands, and Denmark accounting for 0.08%, 0.03%, 0.27%, and 0.07% respectively in 2024. In contrast, China accounted for 29% and the US for 11% of global emissions. Despite building the most renewable capacity annually, solar and wind comprise less than a quarter of electricity generation in China and the US.
While countries like Spain (42%), Germany (45%), and the UK (36%) have high renewable shares, their growth occurred over longer periods and at slower rates. Systems Change Lab noted that energy security concerns, such as reliance on fossil fuel imports, initially drove the shift in the four leading countries. Their progress was largely dependent on sustained long-term policies and stable investment conditions. Uruguay and Namibia, unlike Denmark, did not require subsidies due to falling renewable costs, but still needed policy reforms to enable private sector participation at competitive prices.
The report emphasizes that achieving "real systems change" necessitates rapid and sustained growth in solar and wind power globally. It suggests that developed nations, with greater historical responsibility for emissions and higher capacity to act, should aim for renewable growth rates exceeding the global average to facilitate transitions in other countries where rapid shifts are more challenging.