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FOMC Meeting Sept. 15-16: Rate Hike Odds Split Amid Strong Jobs Data

Created at 5 Sep · 1:11 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene September 15-16, with markets split on whether the Fed will hike interest rates. A strong August jobs report has fueled hopes for a hike, but upcoming CPI data remains a key factor.

Key Numbers

162,000US jobs added in August
4.1%August unemployment rate
58.4%Probability of 25-basis-point rate hike
3.50%-3.75%Current Fed target interest rate range
3.1%Year-over-year average hourly earnings increase

Who's Involved

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
Federal Reserve committee holding September meeting
Federal Reserve
Central bank setting interest rate policy
CME FedWatch Tool
Source for market probability data on rate hikes

↳ Why This Matters

The FOMC's decision on interest rates significantly impacts financial markets, including stocks, treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar. Unexpected policy shifts can also increase volatility in cryptocurrency markets.

Key facts

  • The FOMC will meet September 15-16, with the policy decision on September 16.
  • US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly beating forecasts.
  • Market sentiment is divided, with a 58.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
  • Upcoming CPI inflation data for August, due September 11, is a key factor.
  • The Fed's press conference is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on September 16.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to convene on September 15-16, 2026, for its next policy meeting. This meeting follows a stronger-than-anticipated U.S. employment report for August, which saw employers add 162,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 55,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

    The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16, with a press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. ET. Investors will scrutinize comments for indications on future rate movements. The meeting will also include new economic projections covering inflation, employment, and interest rates.

    Market expectations are divided regarding the Fed's next move. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, which would adjust the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The odds of rates remaining unchanged stand at 41.6%. The robust August jobs report has bolstered hopes for a rate increase, with futures markets previously indicating a 59% chance of a hike.

    Key economic data, including the August CPI inflation figures due September 11, will be crucial for the FOMC's decision. Additionally, wage growth, with average hourly earnings up 3.1% year-over-year, suggests a strong labor market that could support a more restrictive policy stance.

    Frequently asked questions

    The FOMC will convene on Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15-16, 2026.

    The policy call will be scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16.

    The current target range is 3.50%-3.75%.

    Market odds show a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike.

    What Happens Next

    01August CPI inflation data to be released on September 11.
    02FOMC policy decision to be announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16.
    03FOMC press conference to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET on September 16.
    CME Headlines
    • 2-Year T-Note futures fell on strong nonfarm payrolls data.
      4 Sep · 5:10 PM
    • 2-Year T-Note futures fell on strong nonfarm payrolls data.
      4 Sep · 5:10 PM
    • Short-end yields rise for 3rd week ahead of August CPI data.
      4 Sep · 5:06 PM

    How It Developed

    US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, exceeding expectations.
    The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in August.
    The FOMC will meet September 15-16, with the policy decision on September 16.
    A press conference will follow the policy announcement at 2:30 p.m. ET.
    Market odds show a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
    The current target range for interest rates is 3.50%-3.75%.
    August CPI data, expected September 11, will influence the Fed's decision.
    Average hourly earnings increased 3.1% year-over-year in August.

    Sources

    T1
    FOMC Meeting Sept. 2026: Date, Schedule, Expectations and How To Watch?CoinGape

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