Key facts
- An internal-combustion-engine car traveling 862 miles on $100 of gasoline contrasts with an EV traveling 2,310 miles on the same amount of electricity.
- A gas boiler heating a home for 30 days on $100 of fuel compares to a heat pump running for 42 days on the same amount of electricity.
- The share of final energy consumption from electricity rose to 23.4% in 2025 from 16.7% in 2000.
- Energy systems researchers note that trade barriers may hinder electrification, particularly for heavy transport.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees a growing alignment of cost, security, and environmental factors that favor a global shift toward electrification. Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, highlighted this convergence, suggesting that for the first time in years, these three crucial objectives are working in tandem.
This optimistic outlook is partly influenced by geopolitical events like the Iran war, which have increased energy prices and underscored concerns about energy security. The IEA's analysis indicates significant cost advantages for electricity over fossil fuels for transportation and home heating. For instance, $100 worth of electricity can power an electric vehicle nearly three times farther than the same amount of gasoline, and provide 40% more heating for a home compared to natural gas.
Globally, electricity's share in final energy consumption has grown, reaching 23.4% in 2025 from 16.7% in 2000, with China showing the most significant increase. However, energy researchers caution that the path to widespread electrification is not without its hurdles. David Victor, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, points out that trade-offs are inescapable, particularly for heavy-duty transport like trucks, ships, and aircraft. He also anticipates that trade barriers could impede the transition.
Emily Grubert, an energy systems researcher at the University of Notre Dame, suggests that political decisions and the influence of established industries, which may prioritize profits from fossil fuels, are slowing down the transition. Kenneth Medlock III from Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy stresses the importance of a thorough cost-benefit analysis, noting that the high upfront costs of building new electrification systems, such as wind and solar farms, are often underestimated. Chuks Okereke, a professor at the University of Bristol, adds that outside of wealthy nations, the economic case for electrification is more challenging due to infrastructure costs, requiring international assistance for developing economies like Nigeria.
Despite these challenges, the IEA is pushing for a target of 35% electrification of final energy by 2035, a goal that will be discussed at the upcoming COP31 climate conference. Birol acknowledges the difficulty of the energy transition but believes that the alignment of priorities makes the immense challenge somewhat more manageable.