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Crypto Market Eyes US PCE Inflation, Jobs Data, GDP Growth

Created at 24 Aug · 12:06 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The crypto market is anticipating key U.S. economic indicators this week, including PCE inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment claims. These figures are expected to influence Federal Reserve policy and potentially drive volatility in Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Key Numbers

0.1%projected month-on-month PCE increase
3.6%projected annual PCE inflation rate
0.2%projected month-on-month Core PCE increase
3.3%projected annual Core PCE inflation rate
1.5%projected Q2 annualized GDP growth
206,000forecast for weekly unemployment claims

Who's Involved

Federal Reserve
monitoring inflation and economic growth for policy decisions
Kevin Warsh
Fed Chair scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole symposium

↳ Why This Matters

These key U.S. economic indicators, particularly inflation and growth data, are critical for shaping Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations. Their release could significantly influence interest rates, market liquidity, and investor risk appetite, directly impacting the price action of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Key facts

  • The crypto market is awaiting key U.S. economic data releases this week.
  • The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due Wednesday.
  • Headline PCE is projected to increase 0.1% month-on-month, with an annual rate of 3.6%.
  • Core PCE is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month, reaching an annual rate of 3.3%.
  • Second-quarter GDP growth is projected at 1.5% annualized.
  • Initial jobless claims are expected to remain steady at 206,000.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium.
  • The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a week of significant U.S. economic data releases that could influence Federal Reserve policy and impact Bitcoin and other risk assets. Investors will be closely watching inflation, economic growth, and labor market indicators.

    The primary focus will be on the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, scheduled for release on Wednesday. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The headline PCE is projected to increase by 0.1% month-on-month, following a 0.1% decline in June, with the annual rate expected to be 3.6%, down from 3.7%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecast to rise by 0.2% from the previous month, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%. These figures will be crucial for shaping expectations ahead of the Fed's September meeting, as current inflation levels remain above the central bank's 2% target.

    Additionally, a new report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be released on Wednesday, with projections indicating a 1.5% annualized expansion in the second quarter, a decrease from the 2.1% growth seen in the first quarter.

    Labor market conditions will also be under scrutiny on Thursday with the release of weekly initial jobless claims. The forecast suggests these claims will remain steady at 206,000 for the week ending August 22, providing further insight into employment trends.

    Remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium are also anticipated to provide clues on the economic outlook and potential policy direction. The combination of these data points and speeches could significantly affect lending rates, liquidity, and overall risk appetite within the crypto market, particularly given Bitcoin's recent upward trend.

    Frequently asked questions

    The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, tracking the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers.

    The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual gathering of central bankers, economists, and academics hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, often serving as a platform for major policy announcements or insights.

    GDP growth indicates the overall health of the economy. Stronger growth might suggest a robust economy, potentially leading to higher interest rates, while weaker growth could signal a slowdown, influencing risk appetite for assets like cryptocurrencies.

    What Happens Next

    01Release of July PCE price index on Wednesday.
    02Release of Q2 GDP growth report on Wednesday.
    03Release of weekly unemployment claims on Thursday.
    04Remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole symposium.
    CME Headlines
    • Warsh's Jackson Hole debut lands 19 days before the Fed decision.
      21 Aug · 9:12 PM
    • Warsh's Jackson Hole debut lands 19 days before the Fed decision.
      21 Aug · 9:12 PM
    • Warsh's Jackson Hole debut lands 19 days before the Fed decision.
      21 Aug · 9:12 PM

    How It Developed

    Key U.S. economic indicators are expected to shape Fed policy expectations this week.
    The PCE price index for July will be released Wednesday.
    Headline PCE is projected to rise 0.1% month-on-month, with an annual rate of 3.6%.
    Core PCE is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month, with an annual reading of 3.3%.
    Second-quarter GDP growth is projected at 1.5% annualized.
    Weekly new claims for unemployment benefits are forecast to remain steady at 206,000 on Thursday.
    Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium.

    Sources

    T1
    Crypto Market This Week: What To Expect From US PCE Inflation, Jobs Data, GDP GrowthCoinGape

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