Key facts
- September consumer prices accelerated.
- Most brokerages expect a December rate hike.
- Fed's next policy meeting is October 27-28.
Global brokerages largely anticipate at least one more US Federal Reserve interest rate increase this year, with December being the most expected month. This outlook follows September consumer price data showing an acceleration, reinforcing expectations for sustained higher borrowing costs. Citigroup became the latest major brokerage to forecast the Fed's next rate increase in December, though several strategists said consecutive hotter-than-expected core inflation readings have made an October move a clear possibility. The central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on October 27 and 28. Interest-rate futures are pricing in a roughly 27% chance of a rate increase at the October meeting and an 89.5% probability of a move in December, according to CME's FedWatch data. Forecasts for 2026 from various brokerages indicate a range of rate hike expectations, with most projecting one 25 basis point hike, leading to a Fed funds rate between 4.00%-4.25%, while BofA Global Research anticipates two hikes totaling 50 basis points, resulting in a rate of 4.25%-4.50%.