Key facts
- Copper prices are nearing their mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton.
- Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecasts.
- HSBC warned that commodities face a "super-squeeze" due to supply disruptions and strong demand.
- Supply recovery from previous disruptions has trailed expectations, with forecasts lowered.
- US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded expectations, tightening the ex-US market.
- Geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz are contributing to supply concerns.
Copper prices are approaching their mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning. Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their year-end price targets, while HSBC warns that commodities face a "super-squeeze" due to supply disruptions and strong structural demand, exacerbated by ongoing tensions near the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs noted that supply recovery from previous disruptions has been slower than expected, leading them to lower their 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt. They also observed stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026, tightening the market outside the US and increasing the projected US inventory build to 900kt for 2026. These factors, combined with uncertainty over potential US copper tariffs and long-term demand from AI and grid upgrades, prompted Goldman to upgrade their 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts.
HSBC's warning of a "super-squeeze" highlights the confluence of factors impacting metal prices, including supply constraints due to geopolitical events in the Middle East and robust structural demand. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint, is a significant concern for commodity flows. Goldman Sachs outlined three price scenarios based on the duration of the Hormuz closure, the announcement of US copper tariffs, or a decision against tariffs, with varying implications for copper prices and market balances.