Key facts
- Galaxy Digital has reduced its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act's passage in 2026 to 50%.
- The primary reason for the downgrade is the Senate's increasingly tight legislative calendar.
- Daily meetings are occurring between Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans, the White House, and crypto industry stakeholders.
- Key policy issues, including ethics clauses and developer protections, remain unresolved.
- The Senate is scheduled to reconvene on July 13, with a critical legislative window closing on August 7.
Negotiations surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act are intensifying with daily closed-door meetings involving key stakeholders, including Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans, the White House, and representatives from the crypto industry. Kristin Smith, President of the Solana Policy Institute, has indicated that these discussions are substantive and ongoing, expressing optimism about the bill's potential to pass despite a temporary delay due to the Senate's adjournment until July 13.
Smith emphasized the critical nature of these bipartisan efforts, noting that several senators from both parties are actively working to advance the legislation. She described the engagement as a "pro-crypto army on the ground" collaborating to achieve legislative success. Despite facing obstacles such as disagreements on stablecoin yield provisions and ethics clauses, Smith believes that creative solutions are being found to move the bill forward.
The CLARITY Act faces a crucial legislative window from July 13 to August 7, a period Smith believes is sufficient for the Senate to place the bill on its agenda and make progress. Lawmakers, administration officials, and industry participants have reportedly dedicated thousands of hours to the bill, with a goal of reaching an agreement before Congress's August recess.
Galaxy Digital has lowered its expectations for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026 to 50%, down from 60%, citing the Senate's tight schedule and a lack of progress in negotiations. The firm's Head of Research, Alex Thorn, noted that "the absence of news is itself the news" and that "floor time is the scarcest resource in the Senate right now." Competition for floor time is intensifying due to other legislative priorities, including the SAVE Act and FISA legislation. Unresolved policy issues, such as ethics clauses and developer protections, also contribute to the uncertainty.