Key facts
- Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti believes the CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass Congress.
- Mariotti cited conversations with lawmakers and staff as evidence of waning congressional interest.
- The bill faces challenges related to a Ninth Circuit prediction market case and potential Supreme Court appeal.
- Sen. Cynthia Lummis warned that the next opportunity for similar legislation could be as late as 2030.
- Prediction market odds for the CLARITY Act's passage have significantly decreased.
Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti has expressed strong doubts about the future of the CLARITY Act, stating that Congress appears to have moved on from the legislation. Following meetings with lawmakers and congressional staff, Mariotti shared on X that he believes the bill is 'dead' and that Capitol Hill is entering a 'post-CLARITY era.'
Mariotti linked the bill's obstacles to a Ninth Circuit case involving prediction markets like Kalshi and New Jersey's attempt to appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. His remarks echo sentiments from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who two weeks prior described the legislation as 'walking dead,' contributing to growing uncertainty about the CLARITY Act's prospects.
Senator Cynthia Lummis urged for the bill's consideration before the end of the current Congress, warning that the next significant opportunity for comprehensive crypto market legislation might not arise until 2030. She emphasized the potential loss of jobs, investment, and tax revenue if the bill is not passed soon.
With a short legislative session, the House is scheduled to depart Washington on September 17, leaving minimal time for consideration of any amended Senate version before the upcoming cloture vote. Confidence in prediction markets has also waned, with Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 currently between 13% and 18%, a sharp decline from over 80% earlier this year. Kalshi also indicates low probabilities for the Senate to reach the necessary threshold for debate.