Key facts
- US cable TV subscribers have fallen from 100 million in 2016 to 62 million.
- Analysts at MoffettNathanson predict the pay TV industry will stabilize around 50 million US subscribers by 2030.
- The decline in pay TV subscribers slowed to 4.6% in the second quarter, down from 6.4% a year prior.
- Many remaining subscribers value pay TV for access to live sports, including NFL games.
- Distributors are reintroducing bundled packages that combine live TV networks with streaming services.
The long-term decline in US pay TV subscribers may be nearing a bottom, according to analysts at MoffettNathanson. The industry has seen a significant drop from 100 million subscribers in 2016 to the current 62 million. However, the rate of subscriber loss has slowed, with a 4.6% decrease in the second quarter of this year, compared to a 6.4% loss in the same period last year.
Analysts project that the number of pay TV subscribers will stabilize around 50 million by 2030. This includes traditional providers like Comcast and Charter, as well as digital services such as YouTube TV, which is on track to become the largest pay TV provider in the US. The continued demand for live sports, including NFL games, is a key factor keeping a significant audience subscribed. Additionally, distributors are reassembling elements of the traditional cable bundle, offering packages that combine live TV networks with streaming services like Paramount, Peacock, and Disney Plus, which appears to be resonating with consumers. Charter, for example, has seen its subscriber decline slow to 1% from 10% over the past two years.